Christmas spending will only rise 2% this year, according to a survey conducted by America's Research Group (ARG) founder Britt Beemer, who has accurately forecasted Christmastime retail sales in 15 of the last 16 years.

The author of two influential Christian retail market studies, Beemer said consumers who feel worse off financially this Christmas has risen to 31.8% compared to 18.5% last year.

"This is the softest Christmas retail season that we've experienced in many years," said Beemer, also chairman of ARG. "Many factors such as higher food costs, increased fuel cost and the war in Iraq have remained constant, but this year consumers seem more impacted by them. They (are) looking for bigger bargains than ever and many families plan to stay home and entertain less."

ARG's survey of 1,000 shoppers across the country found that 58% of consumers say they will be more bargain-driven this year with 81.6% expecting retailers to cut prices just before Christmas, up from 76.5% last year. Nearly half (46.5%) will wait for 50% off sales this season before they buy, up from 39.5% in 2006.

During the Future of the Industry conference at the end of CBA Advance in 2006, Beemer encouraged retailers and suppliers to make Christmas a major marketing focus to draw consumers.

According to ARG, consumers were projected to spend $6.3 million in Christian bookstores nationwide this month compared to $6.62 million spent in September.

In contrast to the ARG prediction, the National Retail Federation projects that holiday sales will rise 4% this year to $474.5 billion.

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