The National Retail Federation (NRF) today released its forecast for the upcoming holiday season, predicting that sales will rise 4% to $474.5 billion.

"Retailers are in for a somewhat challenging holiday season as consumers are faced with numerous economic obstacles," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. "With the weak housing market and current credit crunch, consumers will be forced to be more prudent with their holiday spending."

NRF's holiday sales prediction is expected to fall below the 10-year average of 4.8%, according to the world's largest retail trade association. It would represent the slowest holiday sales growth since 2002, when sales rose 1.3%.