Based on the findings of his company's new research survey of Christmas shoppers, Britt Beemer, CEO and founder of America's Research Group (ARG), lowered his forecast of Christmas retail sales to a rise of just 2.7% above last year, from the 3.1% he predicted in mid-November.

“The lack of a 'must-have' item for Christmas and the lackluster way retailers have approached the Christmas season this year compels me to lower my Christmas retail forecast for only the fourth time in 20 years,” Beemer said. “Shoppers are just not seeing the excitement at the stores,” he added.

Beemer said that even though Christmas falling on a Monday this year provides an additional full weekend of shopping, retailers should “not expect that an extra shopping day this year will save them, because only 36.6% of shoppers said they expect to shop on December 24.” He noted half of the 36.6% who responded sounded “very unsure” as to whether they would shop on Christmas Eve, also.

According to the latest ARG survey, toys, electronics and jewelry are the only bright spots this Christmas. Toys rank No. 1, with 34.3% of shoppers buying them so far this season, compared to 31.9% at the same point last year. Electronics have surged this year, with 24.2% buying them compared to only 16.9% last year. Jewelry sales are up 16.1% this Christmas season from 13.9% last year. The study also found that lower store staffing levels have driven over one-fifth of shoppers (22.6%) away from stores, compared to 20.9% last year.